by Property Investor
Posted July 23, 2018
2018 is looking to be another strong year for the residential sales market with a combination of higher
pre-selling sales take up and continuous strong demand. Declining vacancy rates are also a good indicator that the demand for residential units is real and not just purely speculative.
Overall, Metro Manila continues to be a fast-growing and competitive market with key factors centering on location and living experience.
Pre-selling sales remained strong with net take- up of 11,000 units in Q1 2018. We expect take-up to reach at least 40,000 in 2018 driven by investors and end- users. Through 2020 we expect demand to be approximately 40,000 units per year.
2018 forecast is adjusted downward to 12,800 units given construction delays and adjustments in timelines. For 2019 to 2021, we still expect 27,100 units to be completed.
Vacancy stands at 12.4%, slightly down QoQ. We expect resilient vacancy staying within the low double digit range in the next three years despite the upcoming supply as demand from Chinese nationals increases.
Rents have been declining but this should recover as more units in CBDs are delivered and demand from foreign and local employees grow. We expect a 1% – 3% annual increase in rents from 2019 to 2020.
Prices in CBDs continue to rise between 2% to 4.5% QoQ. We expect this to continue in 2018 with infrastructure developments and high pre-sales levels. Through 2020 we expect capital values to rise 8% – 10% per year, congruent with the level of supply coming online.
Source: Collier’s International (1Q2018 Residential Report)